As experts and not-so-experts keep comparing our current situation to previous events in history, they tend to use statistics and graphs that are missing the most important point.
First, there are no comparable case studies for what we are experiencing today. Secondly, the circumstances and the speed with which the Corona virus impacts global financial and economic markets is unprecedented.
This is not a crisis! It’s a shock in the supply chain, the production chain, and the demand side; all happening in the shortest period of time ever witnessed. This is not a tidal wave or high tide that slowly washes over our shores. This is a tsunami!
That doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world, the economy, or international trade as we know it.
The positive message is that while a tsunami causes major damage, it passes quickly. It hits our inner shores with a vengeance, and then disappears with the same speed.
With that in mind, our preparations, actions, and decisions need to be geared towards and adapted to an immediate and radical shock, rather than a prolonged crisis.
The Fed. understands that very well. They have opened all the dams so money can flow wherever liquidity is needed, to the tune of $4 trillion. To place that intervention into perspective, remember that the Fed.’s balance sheet in 2008 was “only” $750 billion. By the end of 2009, it’s balance sheet increased to $4.5 trillion. At the beginning of this year, the Fed. held $3.5 trillion in all 3 SPV’s (Maiden Lane 1, 2, and 3). In essence, and by opening the flood gates, the Fed. will increase it’s balance sheet to $8 trillion, an increase of 100%.
That is what immediate protection against a tsunami is supposed to look like.
The Government however still believes that measures should be taken to protect the American companies and workers from a crisis, hence the perpetual fights between the elephant and the donkey. Neither one has fully understood that while they fight about whether the silverware needs more protection than the pots and pans in the cupboard, that the tsunami has no preference whatsoever and continues its path unobstructed and unbiased.
The longer we focus on fixing the crisis, the more opportunity the shock gets and the more damage we will all be left with once the tsunami passes.
In my opinion, an elephant doesn’t swim any better or faster or more elegantly than a donkey. You either swim together in unison, or both will be at risk of drowning.
Take your pick! Make a decision! The longer the wait, hoping that you can actually modify a tsunami into a tidal wave, the more people will be placed at risk. The same people who abide by the rules, seek shelter-in-place, and practice social distancing.
We, the people, are ready for the tsunami and eager to rebuild when given the opportunity. Are you Senators and Congressmen/women???